See also: 立法局包圍戰之
[反高鐵] 點解我地要突破警方防線 (附圖解釋)

When you have an asymmetric conflict like the StopXRL movement, do drastic measures from the weaker side always equal irrational over-reactions? 喺反高鐵呢種唔對稱嘅對抗中,強硬行動係唔係一定過激?

Imagine two antagonists (or countries). Let’s call them Sam and Joe. Sam is rich and have a lot of weapons available, but Joe is strong. They are in a dispute over something and their conflict is escalating.

Consider their weapons:

Sam: fist, handknife, handgun, M-16, M1A1 tank, Apache helicopter, F-15 fighter, F-22 fighter, Satellite Laser system

Joe: fist, handknife, AK47, Mig 31 fighter jet, Satellite Laser system

As their conflict escalate, they would pull out bigger and more powerful weapons from their war chest. Now, as Joe is stronger, Sam loses out in the fist fight, and pulls out a handgun. Joe has no choice but to get his AK47. Sam pulls out his M-16, but as he is not as good a marksman, he called in an M1A1. Joe had no choice but to call in his Mig 31 fighter jet. The conflict escalates into a space war.

Now let’s put ourselves in Joe’s shoes. Was he irrational or “over-reacting”? No. He just made use of his limited resources as well as he could. The problem is that Sam was in a much convenient position to escalate a conflict, and in each escalation he chose to put Joe in an uncomfortable position.

Now, ladies and gentlemen, what choices did the governement or the police give the protesters? We tried sit-ins and conflict-free demonstrations. The government simply ignored us. When we want dialogues, what did they give us? Has the Hong Kong SARS actually tried to act like a government for the people of the people, even if it is not by the people? 當喺中聯辦綁條絲帶都會被人剪傷手, 你仲想同佢和諧落去?

Don’t take things on their face values. There are often reasons, even logical ones, behind conflict escalations.

Further Reading:
王岸然:從反高鐵到擲胸圍皆八十後 http://www.hkej.com/template/blog/php/blog_details.php?blog_posts_id=43269

Conflict Escalation: theory
http://www.mediate.com/articles/jordan.cfm
Brinkmanship
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicken_%28game%29

http://www.beyondintractability.org/essay/escalation/
Constructive Escalation
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_of_attrition_%28game%29
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Conflict_process
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conflict_resolution

About hkXRL and Mai Po
高鐵工程或令米埔水位降 http://hk.news.yahoo.com/article/090802/4/di3l.html

Advertisements

China: Peking to Canton
length: thousands of km
time: 10 hours
top speed: ?
average speed: ?
cost: 200billion people’s dollar
(source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/1935188.stm)

WuHan-Canton line:
lengh: 1029km
Top speed: 400km/h
Cost: 93Billion

Hong Kong: Kowloon to Canton
length: 26 km aka a big blackhole beneath New Territories
time: ? (unclear, for passengers need to get through the border control)
topspeed: 200km/hour
average speed: 130km/h
cost: 70 billion hk dollars (i.e. a quarter of the entire length of Canton-Peking line) 2.5 billion per km, over 10 times the average of the chinese line

See also
高鐵世紀騙局 http://ka-yue.com/blog/%E5%8F%8D%E9%AB%98%E9%90%B5%EF%BC%81%EF%BC%81%EF%BC%81%EF%BC%81%EF%BC%81

Charts on HK low speed rail

高鐵工程或令米埔水位降
【明報專訊】全長26公里的廣深港高速鐵路香港段,部分會穿越國際重要濕地米埔、農地及郊野公園,民間學者兼有機菜農文思慧發現,港鐵的環評報告承認隧道工程有可能導致地下水位下降,但未有詳細評估水位下降對地面生態及農業的影響,擔心這項失誤會造成生態災難,要求今日開會審批的環諮會環評小組否決該份環評報告。…

文思慧今日會向環諮會提交廣深港環評不足的文章,要求該會環評小組認真審視是否通過報告。她引述環評的「水文地質報告」部分,指報告承認「隧道工程可能引致地下水不受控,湧入挖掘中的工地」,因而有地下水位下降的風險;地下水位下降,會引起上層土壤沉降,及破壞地面建築及設施。….

Related post
九廣高鐵成本效益
short link: http://wp.me/pHENS-1K

RTHK
http://www1.881903.com/apps/newsBoss/html/news/20091218/2009121820190362300.htm

ATV
http://www.hkatvnews.com/v3/share_out/_content/2009/12/18/atvnews_135954.html

Twitter
https://twitter.com/search?q=%231218hk
https://twitter.com/search?q=%23stopxrl

黃毓民:用議事規則抗爭,用時間爭取空間
李卓人:人民力量萬歲!工人要飯碗,工人也要公義!
陳淑莊:第四代喚醒第一二三代,80後青年萬歲!
菜園村代表非常感激群眾
福界支持取消功能組別
CCTVB報道高鐵好少,外面的人完全無提過

apple daily:
政府隱瞞高鐵搞亂彌敦道大量巴士駛橫街 塞爆油尖旺 煩死居民

立法會財務委員會今天討論廣深港高速鐵路撥款申請,有民間團體發現政府企圖瞞天過海,一直對議員及市民隱瞞高鐵西九站對油尖旺區的負面影響,包括彌敦道交通將有翻天覆地的改變,沿線有 3個主要路口需大規模改道,將大量車輛及巴士帶入橫街,至少有6個路口料將出現塞車,居民的生活大受滋擾。

由學者及工程師組成的高鐵專家組表示,政府為高鐵西九站聘請顧問進行了交通評估,但顧問報告書從未公佈,只有一份放在立法會秘書處,外人不准查閱。他們透過議員協助才有機會一窺內容。專家組成員熊永達、泰萊及司馬文昨指出,報告估計西九站將在繁忙時間為附近道路帶來 12,000架次新增汽車流量,建議實施多項疏導措施。其中一項措施是要在彌敦道3個主要路口實施改道,包括佐敦道車輛不能轉入彌敦道,彌敦道車輛也不能轉入佐敦道及窩打老道,車輛要改經橫街,政府從來沒有在文件中提及這些擾民措施。他們估計,大量汽車及巴士會因改道走入上海街、砵蘭街、南京街、德興街及覺士道等橫街,巴士車程一定會受影響,居民也會受到更大的汽車噪音滋擾。政府提交立法會的文件聲稱只要實施了改善措施,油尖旺區就不會因西九站而出現交通擠塞。但他們發現,報告清楚列出,就算實施了所有改善措施,區內仍有兩個路口會超出容量,有 4個路口剩餘容量低於 10%。他們估計,這些路口塞車而引致的車龍或會伸延影響全區交通。

建行車隧道存技術問題
http://hk.apple.nextmedia.com/images/apple-photos/apple/20091218/large/A08_01_a.gif
對於政府計劃在西九站旁興建廣東道地下行車隧道,疏導往尖沙嘴的交通。他們發現,行車隧道其實只是顧問提出的一項構思,根本從未進行工程可行性研究。他們認為,行車隧道工程存有不少技術問題,因為該處地下有大量公共設施,包括大型水管、煤氣管及電線,能否配合西九站在2015年完成很成疑問。運輸及房屋局回應指出,西九龍的交通規劃可應付直至2031年的發展,包括高鐵站和西九文化區的交通需求,區內之路口未達飽和。《出現擠塞的六個路口》•彌敦道/窩打老道 交通狀況:超出容量,嚴重擠塞•柯士甸道/覺士道/松山道 交通狀況:超出容量,嚴重擠塞•廣東道/柯士甸道 交通狀況:剩餘容量低於10%,部份時間擠塞•彌敦道/柯士甸道 交通狀況:剩餘容量低於 10%,部份時間擠塞•廣東道/九龍公園徑 交通狀況:剩餘容量低於10%,部份時間擠塞•欣翔道/渡船街/甘肅街 交通狀況:剩餘容量低於 10%,部份時間擠塞!DFT3NTj^

特稿 區議員運輸業:勢必大癱瘓對於政府計劃在彌敦道實施大規模改道,以疏導高鐵西九站的交通,區議員及運輸業都擔心,油尖旺區民居密集,橫街窄小,現在已經常塞車,改道勢必引致交通大癱瘓。

彌敦道已非常塞車油尖旺區議員林浩揚指出,政府一直籠統地表示會實施改善措施疏導高鐵西九站的交通,但從無向區議會交代具體措施及數據。他曾多次向政府索取交通評估報告,都未獲回覆。他表示,現時彌敦道已經非常塞車,大批巴士都途經彌敦道來往尖沙嘴,若再實施大規模改道,只會令交通更混亂,影響的乘客亦很多;區內的橫街非常狹窄,將車流引入橫街,只會加劇擠塞,汽車的噪音及廢氣會嚴重影響居民,如果政府承諾會加建的廣東道行車隧道未能如期通車,區內交通一定癱瘓。的士小巴權益關注大聯盟主席黎銘洪表示,油尖旺是小巴集中地,繁忙時間不但彌敦道擠塞,幾乎大部份街道都會塞車。將來高鐵西九站連同西九文化區,一定引來大量車流,附近道路都會成為樽頸,若實施改道將車引入橫街,只會塞上加塞。http://hk.apple.nextmedia.com//images/apple-photos/apple/20091218/large/18la5p1.jpg